[The warm grip gets a grin and a soft chuckle, and he busies his hands with pulling a cigarette out, but no lighter.]

I don't think I'm qualified to talk about the Monty Hall Coma problem. [He waves his packet idly in the air.] Maybe it's 'cos the Admiral knows you're gonna do something so spectacularly stupid that he does it on purpose to stop you from getting your ass sent to juvie?